Positioning Your Portfolio For A Debt Ceiling Debacle

As the talking heads on TV debate the chances of the U.S. raising the debt ceiling past its current cap of $28.4 trillion, many, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and JP Morgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, are predicting economic calamity if Congress fails to act. So, what should an investor do? If history is any guide, we have little to worry about—Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling 80 or so times since 1960—but if the past year and a half has taught us anything, it’s that we should expect the unexpected. That said, the odds of the U.S. defaulting on its debt are quite low (though unfortunately not zero). The current crop of politicians likely learned their lesson during the 2011 debt crisis, when the S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating, and the Dow suffered a 5.6% one-day drop. The senior politicians back then—Pelosi, Biden, Schumer, and McConnell—were the same as the ones in charge now, so even if they approach the edge of default, we expect them to back off.