The Boyar Value Group just released our latest quarterly letter to clients.
The S&P 500 increased by 10.2% during 1Q 2024, closing at a record high 22 times during the quarter—the highest figure since 1Q 1998 and a stark contrast to 2023, when it had no record closes throughout the year (the first time since 2012) despite advancing by 24%. (Note: The figures in this section are not inclusive of dividends.) From 1950 through 2023, the S&P 500 has gained 8% or more 16 times in 1Q. In 15 of those instances, it added to its gains throughout the year, for an average advance of 9.7% over the following 3 quarters according to Teresa Rivas writing for Barron’s. (In 1987, the one exception, the S&P 500 started the year with a blistering 20% advance for 1Q, but on October 19, Black Monday, it declined by over 20% in a single day—yet, remarkably, still finished positive for the year.)
Although a strong start to the year is generally a bullish signal, investors should curb their
enthusiasm for spectacular gains for the rest of 2024: in 10 of those 15 years, the 1Q gains eclipsed those of the remaining 3 quarters combined...